CAN WE MINIMIZE THE NUMBER PEOPLE UNDER QUARANTINE?
Bkav in general and myself in particular, are fortunate to be quite deeply involved in the work of Vietnam’s National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control. On July 2020, when the pandemic broke out in Da Nang, all social activities stopped. That was when we sent our experts, together with representatives of Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications to go to the pandemic center. When Hai Duong province continuously recorded COVID-19 cases, we once again sent people there to help this locality in tracing.
From such activities, we have got practical experience. Moreover, we have the chance to approach statistics. This is extremely valuable in the long-term COVID-19 prevention and control strategy.
Every time a new outbreak gets identified, it usually starts with an F0 discovered when going to the hospital. Then, the tracing team will ask that F0 about the people he/she met, the places he/she went to, the activities he/she did, etc. From these contacts comes a list of F1s, then F2s, F3s. We are all too familiar with this procedure in the last year of COVID.
In addition, the authorities will announce the schedules of public places that F0 has visited, so that those who were present at such places know that they are F1.
Therefore, we can divide the Fs into 2 groups. The first group includes people in daily contact with the F0, like family members, neighbors, people working in the same office, and friends who meet face to face. These are also the people that the F0 can REMEMBER. The second group is the people that the F0 DOESN'T KNOW, due to indirect contact in PUBLIC places.
The statistics that we have point out that the first group accounts for 89% of the cases that later become F0s, that is, those infected with COVID-19. The second group only accounts for 11%. This is an EXTREMELY VALUABLE finding!
It can be understood that every time there is an F0, just ask him/her about the people that he/she can remember being exposed to. This can help CAPTURE UP TO 89% OF THE INFECTIONS in the outbreak.
Thus, what we need to pay attention to is the strategy of tracing to "capture" the remaining 11%. This number is not high, but as analyzed above, the exposure happens in a PUBLIC PLACE so it is not easy to be traced.
In line with COVID-19 CHECKPOINT AND TESTING STRATEGY I mentioned in the previous posts the number of cases per outbreak will range from 9 to 27 if the checkpoint and testing are done well. Then, 11% corresponds to a maximum of 27x11% = 3 cases.
Thus, if the COVID-19 CHECKPOINT AND TESTING STRATEGY is well done, all quarantine attempts then will aims at FINDING ONLY 3 PATIENTS IN PUBLIC PLACES.
If the current isolation method is applied, the number of people being isolated is up to hundreds of thousands. However, if we know for sure that the number of cases is only so small, that is, 3 cases, we can definitely MINIMIZE THE PEOPLE ISOLATED.
TECHNOLOGY can once again solve this problem, and I will cover it in the next posts.
The minimized number and scope of isolation will help the society and economy develop normally, in parallel with pandemic prevention.
Wish you a good day!
CEO Nguyen Tu Quang
See original article here.
Total solution for COVID-19 prevention - Part 4
Total solution for COVID-19 prevention - Part 3
Total solution for COVID-19 prevention - Part 1&2