PART 1: THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
COVID-19 has caused billions of dollars in damage, while making the society and economy become stagnated. We cannot just stand.
Before approaching specific solutions, please read my article "Confident with new normal life" posted on VnExpress in September 2016, by the end of COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang.
The article includes my analysis on COVID-19 data in the world and Vietnam tracked by Bkav's Institute of AI Technology since the beginning of pandemic.
As of today, the information in the article is still basically accurate, consistent with recent developments of the pandemic.
PART 2: THE CAUSES OF COVID-19 OUTBREAKS IN DA NANG AND HAI DUONG
Based on analysis of data from the two outbreaks, we can conclude that they have the same cause. Understanding the cause will help us find a SCIENTIFIC SOLUTION.
Da Nang on July 27, 2020, the first case, No.418, was discovered. This case had symptoms since July 11 and came to Hai Chau District Hospital.
If the hospital had applied COVID-19 CHECKPOINT, TESTING for patients with cough and fever, we could have discovered the outbreak on July 11, 16 DAYS SOONER, instead of July 27.
As statistics from millions of COVID-19 infections around the world in my previous post show, every 5 days, the virus shall spread with transmission rate being 3 by 3 times. With 16 days of late detection, more than 3 cycles (16:5), the virus had the chance to spread 27 times (3x3x3)!
According to the statistics of Da Nang outbreak, the number of infections including transmissions to Quang Nam was 531. If the first case had been detected in July 11, the pandemic in Da Nang would have reduced the number of cases by 27 times, which means only 19 (531:27) INFECTIONS!
If an outbreak has only 19 cases, it will be very simple for Vietnam to handle.
Completely similar to the outbreak in Hai Duong. On January 28, 2021, the first case was recorded. Deputy Minister of Ministry of Science and Technology Bui The Duy, Head of COVID-19 Quick Information Response Team said: "There were a lot of people going to hospital FROM JANUARY 18 TO 25 with symptoms of pneumonia, sore throat".
Again, if CHECKPOINT IN HOSPITALS had been implemented strictly, as the strategy I outlined in the article on VnExpress last September, we would have HAD THE CHANCE of discovering the outbreak in Hai Duong from January 18, 10 days sooner, instead of January 28.
With 10 days of late detection, the virus had a chance of further infection 2 (10:5) times. The virus strain in Hai Duong spreads more quickly with its transmission rate being 4.5 instead of 3.
Hai Duong outbreak recorded about 700 COVID-19 cases. So if the first case had been detected 2 cycles [of virus transmission] earlier, we would have had a chance of detecting the outbreak when the virus infected 34 (700:4.5:4.5) cases!
The cause of the 2 biggest outbreaks have been made clear. We also understand the reason why the Ministry of Health of Vietnam has issued documents requesting medical facilities to strictly follow. However, the implementation of these units has not been effective. It takes the contribution of TECHNOLOGY to do well.
If we continue to make mistakes like this in the future, we will hardly have "New Normal Life".
On the contrary, if we can learn from experience, then DESIGN METHODICAL STRATEGY, SOLUTIONS, we can TURN THE TABLES. Vietnam will have a real "New Normal Life" with normal socio-economic development, while still preventing the pandemic, confirming TOP 1 position of the world in this field.
CEO Nguyen Tu Quang